Israel Considers the Gradual Russia's Withdrawal from Syria

Israel is monitoring the ongoing field movements in Syria, where signs suggest that Russia is moving some of its forces to Ukraine, which raises Israeli fears of the emergence of a new security reality, as the Iranians will work on filling any vacuum left by the Russians on Syrian territories.

Israeli decision-making circles consider that the Iranian presence in Syria will pose a threat to Israel, through a long front on its northern borders, as Tehran will deploy missile batteries to prevent the Israeli Air Force from operating. At the same time, however, Israel is seeking to turn these fears into an opportunity, since with the decline of Russian control in Syria, its attacks may henceforth be easier, and there will be no concern of harming Russian forces.

On the other hand, voices within the security and military institutions in Tel Aviv, have been heard, saying that it is too early to “announce the death of ” the Russian presence in Syria, given that it is not easy for Moscow to completely abandon and give up the Russian presence in Syria. It is hard for Moscow to leave the gains it had already achieved and the influence it enjoys in Syria, for which it paid a heavy price. Another loss for Russia is represented in handing such benefits and influence on a plate to the Iranians.

There are several Israeli explanations for the exclusion of the Russian withdrawal from Syria, despite some Russian forces' movements have been monitored on the ground over there. The first explanation suggests that this Russian presence is in any case limited, and does not require extraordinary resources, even in the face of the constant developments in Ukraine. The second interpretation says that one of the main lines of the Russian strategy in various arenas of the world is to get “maximum effects with minimum expenditures.” Syria is likely to be a classic sample of this, where the Russians realized that they could use a minimum size of military force to achieve the maximum result in terms of increasing their regional influence on the one hand and curbing the influence of the US in the region on the other. This would lead to break the monopoly of the United States as a major player in that region.

The Israeli conclusion is that Russia's interest in maintaining a sufficient presence in Syria has not changed significantly, with the recent escalation of discussion about its size in response to the ongoing military developments in Ukraine. At the same time, Iran's interest lies in continuing to consolidate its presence in Syria as well, even if in different ways.

It is a paradox that Assad is still dependent on both, and apparently unable to separate from them, or one of them, at least at this stage.

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