The Russian invasion of Ukraine enters its second year

On February 24, 2022, Russia launched large-scale military operations towards the Ukrainian territory. In the first weeks of the invasion, Russia was able to achieve rapid progress in areas inhabited by a Russian majority loyal to Moscow in the east and south. Russian forces headed towards the Ukrainian capital, Kiev, and reached its outskirts. However, this rapid progress was soon halted; and the position of Russian forces shifted from attack to defense. Moreover, Ukrainian forces were able to push the invading forces away from the capital, and recover parts of the territory that Moscow had controlled in the first phase of the battle.

With the advent of the winter of 2022, combat operations entered a period of forced latency on both sides. However, Russia took advantage of the winter period to prepare its forces for what appears to be a new phase in the war, which is believed to begin with the onset of spring, that is, after the middle of next March.

Russian preparations include equipping combat aircrafts, introducing large numbers of tanks, armoured vehicles and missiles, conducting intensive training for fighters, and transferring equipment and soldiers in large numbers to the areas it occupied in Ukraine.

In this new phase, the Kremlin will seek to achieve the goals that it failed to achieve in the first year, or to achieve at least some of them, as Russia will seek to complete the occupation of the regions declared as annexed to it, but not yet fully controlled. Most importantly, Russia will seek to to show that it has not yet been defeated, but rather has the resources to regain the upper hand in the battle. Russia’s aim is to push the West to reach the conviction that the attempt to break Russia is a hopeless one; and that the West must either stop investing in a useless battle, or engage in Dialogue with Moscow.

On the other hand, the West is preparing for the spring battle by supplying Ukraine with heavy and offensive weapons on a large scale, and providing all the necessary support to Kiev in order to enable it to withstand at least the expected large Russian attack.

The Russian failure this time will have dire consequences for Putin. After the failure of his military campaign in its first year, his ability to endure another year of hit-and-run battles will be much less. Moreover, this failure will mean that Russia has sunk into the Ukrainian quagmire, and his ability to get out of it, will be more difficult in the following years.

The United States was the most prominent winner of the war in its first year, as it was able to show its ability to lead the Western camp, inflict great damage on Russia at a cheap price, and was able to reformulate its relationship with its allies in the European Union. The US was even able to perplex Chinese economic plans to expand across the world through its Belt and Road projects, or the ones intended for dominating the surrounding countries or others outside its sphere.