The dimensions of the major transformations in the African continent during the year 2023

During the year 2023, the African continent will witness many issues that will be of interest, whether those that constitute an extension of existing situations, or those that will result from continental and international transformations and developments, which stand out in many dimensions:

The first dimension: Presidential and parliamentary elections, where the countries of the African continent are witnessing presidential and parliamentary elections in 17 countries during the year 2023, and these elections will significantly affect the political situation on the continent, as the election period is usually accompanied by political unrest, protests, demonstrations and strikes in many countries, especially with the return of the phenomenon of coups d 'état to the continent, In 2022, the continent witnessed two coups in Burkina Faso, and coup attempts in Guinea Bissau, Sao Tome and Principe and the Gambia.

One of the most important elections in the continent is Nigeria's elections, February 2023, given that Nigeria is one of the largest economies in the continent, and the largest in terms of population (about 220 million). It also suffers from complex security problems, and the political atmosphere is tense. Incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari will not run after completing two terms in office, making the election all the more important as the balance of power among the country's main political parties shifts.

After Nigeria comes the importance of the presidential elections in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Liberia and Zimbabwe, in West Africa. Add to that the multiplicity of crises and challenges plaguing this region.

The second dimension: the protracted conflict in Ethiopia. In November 2022, the Ethiopian government and the Tigray Liberation Front signed a cessation of hostilities agreement in Pretoria, South Africa. Even if the fighting has stopped, it does not mean the end of the protracted conflict in the country, with the continuation of hostilities in the Oromia region, the birthplace of the Ethiopian Prime Minister, and the great burdens imposed by the requirements of reconstruction. The areas destroyed by the civil war need between 5 and 10 billion dollars for reconstruction, at a time when the country is suffering from the repercussions of the global economic crisis and inflation of food prices.

The third dimension: the conflicts in the west and center of the continent, where the region is characterized by increasing instability, extremism and violence, where Chad, Burkina Faso, Mali and Guinea have witnessed military coups, and widespread insecurity prevails in large parts of Cameroon and Nigeria, in addition to the ongoing unrest in eastern Congo, where more than 100 armed groups are fighting for control of the region. The situation in these States is likely to worsen as armed groups intensify their attacks, the economic and social conditions of their people collapse, food insecurity, declining government support, intensification of unemployment crises, debt burdens, risks of financial instability and default on sovereign debt payment across the region.

Although the IMF predicts that four African countries - Senegal, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Rwanda and Niger - will be among the world's 10 fastest-growing countries in 2023 at 3.7%, conditions will worsen and deteriorate in most Central and West African countries.

In the Sahel region, which includes countries such as Mali and Niger, malnutrition levels are 60% higher than in 2018. About 1.4 million children under the age of five suffer from severe wasting caused by acute malnutrition.

In the context of these dimensions, it can be said that the indicators of tension and instability are higher than the indicators of stability in the continent, unless the countries of the continent adopt unified policies towards the major powers, and try to take advantage of international competition for their economic wealth, natural resources and political positions, in imposing some conditions on these powers in the interest of the security and stability of the continent; although this requires a lot of effort and coordination, which seems far-fetched, at least during the year 2023.