Pakistan Deports Afghan Refugees, Stirring new Tensions with Taliban

In recent weeks, moves by Pakistan to deport illegal Afghan migrants have exacerbated pre-existing tensions with Taliban-ruled Afghanistan. Estimates of the number of illegal Afghan migrants in Pakistan vary, but some suggest they number around 1.7 million, complicating an already difficult relationship between the two countries. The Pakistani government's move has been criticized by Kabul, which has condemned the action as unilateral and humiliating.

The origins of the current situation date back to the late 1970s and 1980s, when tens of thousands of Afghans fled to Pakistan during the Soviet invasion and subsequent conflicts. Over the years, the number of Afghan migrants in Pakistan has fluctuated, including with the influx of a further 600,000 refugees following the Taliban's rise to power in 2021.

Pakistan justifies its actions by pointing to a recent escalation of armed attacks within its borders, many of which it has attributed to Afghan fighters and migrants. The Pakistani Interior Minister has said that Afghan nationals carried out 14 of the 24 suicide bombings in Pakistan this year, attributing them to the Pakistani Taliban. The banned armed group is believed to have ideological and ethnic links with the Afghan Taliban, where the Pashtun ethnicity forms the majority of both the Afghan and Pakistani movements.

Pakistan claims that the Pakistani Taliban takes refuge in Afghanistan and uses it as a base from which to launch attacks against Pakistani security forces. Despite repeated denials by the Taliban government in Kabul, Islamabad has continued to make this accusation, with Afghan refugees accused of harboring or sympathizing with elements of the Pakistani Taliban.

Pakistan's move to deport Afghan refugees may stem from frustration over its inability to prevent Pakistani Taliban attacks. Additionally, it may be using the deportation of refugees as leverage in negotiations with the Taliban on contentious issues such as border disputes and relations with India. Islamabad may also be trying to absorb domestic anger, amid rising anti-Afghan sentiment due to the country’s economic crisis and intensified attacks on the borders. Some experts warn that this policy may backfire, worsening the situation and reinforcing negative perceptions of Pakistan among Afghans, ultimately boosting support for the Pakistani Taliban.

As these tensions escalate, the future of the relationship between Pakistan and Afghanistan is increasingly uncertain. The forced return of refugees, along with ongoing accusations over the Pakistani Taliban, raises concerns of a further deterioration in diplomatic relations. The new Afghan government also faces similar problems with Iran and other neighboring countries as well as failing to win international recognition, all of which fuels fears of an escalating Afghan migrant crisis worldwide.