The Impact of the Conflict Between the Army and Rapid Support Forces on Sudan's Security and Stability

The unfolding drama in Sudan between the army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) is intensifying and spiraling into unforeseen complexities. The echoes of this tension, which first erupted with gunshots in the heart of Khartoum in April 2023, now resonate beyond the capital's borders. What began as a power tussle and a quest for political transition leadership has now escalated into fiery ethnic and tribal showdowns.

This situation assessment delves deep into the core reasons behind the clash between the army and the RSF. It also sheds light on the intriguing rise of the RSF in Sudan and their gradual ascent to a pivotal role in the nation's political arena.

Furthermore, this paper explores the regional and international stakes in Sudan and gauge the global influence on the trajectory of the conflict. This paper sketches out three potential scenarios for the future face-offs between the battling Sudanese factions. The pendulum seems to swing towards an inconclusive scenario in the near term, with the conflict evolving towards a pattern of geographical power distribution.

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