The Niger coup and the decline of French influence in West Africa.. Who will fill the void?

The military coup that took place in Niger was remarkably accompanied by anti-French demonstrations and slogans. On the other side, Russian flags were hoisted; and an audio recording attributed to the leader of the Russian Wagner Group "Prigozhin” -supporting the coup in Niger - was heard, despite the cautious Russian official position, and despite the likelihood that Russia was not behind the coup, according to official American estimates and the estimates of many analysts.

What is certainly agreed upon, however, is that the coup represents a blow to the traditional French influence in Niger; as France is an old colonial power in that country, and in West Africa in general; especially when this coup is Similar to previous coups in neighboring countries like West Africa, Mali and Burkina Faso, which led to a further undermining of French influence.

The West African region has witnessed an escalation in feelings of hatred and rejection of French influence, especially with its “demonization” by the Russian media machine, as French President Macron put it.

Apparently, there are many factors that play a role in the decline of French influence, most notably;

The modest military performance of the French forces:

This was evident when France was forced to end “Operation Barkhane” that was launched since 2013 throughout the Sahel region of Africa against the militants of Al-Qaeda and ISIS and ended in late 2022. And the French withdrawal came as a result. That war incurred great losses in lives, and led to an increase in the power of extremist groups, which in turn may have contributed to a military coup in Mali in 2020, because of the resentful Mali military over the low French military performance. The coup leaders accused France of negative interference in the affairs of their country, and they sought the help of the Russian Wagner groups, the agent of Russia, which in turn is characterized by great capabilities in bearing human losses unlike France, which does not tolerate such losses in its forces outside the homeland. This model in Mali illustrates one of the most important dynamics driving the expansion of Russia and the decline of France in one of the French historical colonial castles.

The entry of new players and competitors in the region:

Africa has a strategic location and sources of multiple mineral such as uranium, phosphate and chromium, and many raw materials necessary for industries and technological progress

Moreover, it is an important human resources, which makes it a field of competition between major powers and emerging powers. This is not limited to Russia that began to impose itself as a player, but there are others great powers such as China, the United States, as well as rising powers such as Turkey and India; and even Germany.

Global changes after the Ukrainian war:

The food challenge; particularly, grain and its transportation has emerged as an important factor for many countries, most notably poor African countries whose populations suffer from food and hunger crises, that enhances the role of food security as a political tool. This was evident in the Russian president’s promises recently during the Russian-African summit held in Moscow last July, when "Putin" promised a number of African countries to provide them with grain for free, in an apparent attempt to invest the grain tool politically to extend Russian influence in the brown continent.

The colonial legacy:

The burden of the colonial period and its political load appears as a double-edged sword, as the cultural connection to France through language and education, and its impact during the colonial period previously, contributed to the consolidation of French influence. The negative side of the colonial load; however, appeared to be the most influential recently despite the new approaches which France tried to adopt through its talk of partnership, turning the page on the colonial period, and strengthening “Africanization” groups, which refer to recognition and the need to emphasize African culture, institutions, and values, promote them, assert their identity, and restore their heritage after a history of Colonialism and Western Influence.

Based on the foregoing, it is expected that the French influence will continue to decline in its traditional colonies in West Africa in particular. What is added to this is the increase and extension of the Russian influence; albeit with less acceleration than it was before the war. Perhaps what attests to this fact is the decline in the number of African countries that attended the African-Russian summit held In July, compared to the summit that preceded it. Parallel to that in turn is certainly that the other players will take advantage of the changes taking place to try to extend their influence.