The Possible Impact of the Presidential Election on Turkish Foreign Policy

Turkey is a strong regional actor, and its geographical location has also allowed it to influence international events; and this transpired in the Turkish role during the “Russo-Ukrainian” war.

Moreover, Turkey hosts millions of Syrian and Afghan refugees, along with various Arab communities. Such segments have found themselves part of the electoral campaign of various competing parties, as some political parties have made the return refugees to their countries a major cornerstone of their campaigns.

The above considerations highlight the importance of trying to foresee the foreign policy that Ankara will pursue after the upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections.

This study examines the prospects of the AKP or the opposition winning the elections. It investigates the possible impact each scenario may have on Turkish foreign policy, relying on a description of each party's behaviour, ideology, and the premises on which its policies are based. These premises were the base for concluding the foreign policy each party may pursue, if it wins the elections.

The study concluded that there is no expectation of a radical coup in the general foreign policies that may be pursued by the Public Alliance led by Erdogan after winning the elections. There is, however, a possibility of amendments to the current foreign policy. On the other hand, the likelihood of a major shift in foreign policy is high, if the leader of the Republican People's Party, which is the largest opposition coalition parties, comes to power.

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