The Wagner Rebellion Its causes and its internal and external repercussions

The incident of Wagner's leader Yevgeny Prigozhin's rebellion cannot be treated as a normal event, given the nature of the regime in Russia that is based on a mixture of totalitarianism and authoritarianism, in addition to the timing of this rebellion, which occurred in conjunction with the beginning of the first waves of the Ukrainian counterattack with the aim of recovering lands from the Russian forces.

The Wagner incident generated deep debates and discussions about the causes of what happened, and stimulated discussions aimed at drawing scenarios explaining the movements of the Wagner leader, as some opinions suggested collusion between him and Putin to achieve certain goals. Other opinions went to the hypothesis of a decline in Putin's power and his ability to control the balances between the components of his power, due to the repercussions of the war in Ukraine and its bad effects on Russia.

In our assessment of the situation, we discuss the reasons that led to the rebellion of the Wagner Group, and prompted it to move militarily, in addition to reviewing the impact of its rebellion on Putin's internal authority, and the potential effects on Russia's external influence.

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