The war in Ukraine from the Israeli perspective Scenario Prospecting and Lessons Learned

As the Ukrainian-Russian war enters its second month, the Israeli military leaders continue to try to draw lessons from it, to exploit it in expected confrontations on hot fronts, with increasing convictions that the war in Eastern Europe is full of deep strategic lessons for Israel, which may face a similar war on any of the surrounding fronts. Thus, the Israeli leadership seeks to assess the reality of the current war on the one hand and explore the variables that may lead to it on the other hand, and thirdly to identify the mistakes that may occur in any future war.

The probability of any hypothesis being made by Israel's decision-making circles depends on a range of qualitative information about Russian movements, in particular the build-up of troops, their training for battle, and accurate intelligence about the Moscow invasion decision.

More than a month after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine; however, it is still surrounded by a thick veil of fog in front of the Israelis, making it difficult for them to formulate an accurate picture and clear assessments to make recommendations to their politicians. This is the challenge for decision-makers of a war whose picture is not yet fully understood.

In this context, Israeli intelligence officials have difficulty assessing the in-depth military operations in Eastern Europe, although strategic intelligence was supposed to rely on Moscow's historical sensitivity to the presence of “Atlantic” forces on its doorstep, which is true of Ukraine. However, it appears that Israeli intelligence, on the eve of the campaign and to a large extent today, has vague estimates of the strategic intentions of the Russians, so its scenarios remain unclear.

This ambiguity prompted decision-making circles in Israel to demand more humility in reading and understanding the enemies surrounding them from each side and to try to narrow the gaps between the information they possess about them, and their actual capabilities, while emphasizing the need to rely on external sources to formulate the strategic reality around.

 

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