US-Russian Cold War in Libya

In recent weeks, the Libyan scene has been dominated by what resembles a Cold War between the United States and Russia, which can be said to have started years ago. However, it has gradually intensified after Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the rising tension between the West, led by Washington, and Russia.

In the most telling expression of American interest in the Libyan issue, the Biden administration included Libya in its ten-year plan for stabilizing conflict zones in March 2023. The American administration's vision for a solution in Libya focuses on establishing stability, enhancing accountability, and promoting governance.

The Biden administration has motivations behind its significant interest in Libya. It is keen on enhancing global and specifically European energy security and providing a viable and suitable alternative to sustainably replace Libyan oil and gas.

In October 2022, the seismic survey results conducted by the Sirte Oil & Gas Production and Manufacturing Company for the Ghadames and Sirte basins showed promising outcomes. Industrialized countries, especially those in Europe and Turkey, are looking to the Sirte basin to benefit from it in bolstering their energy security.

For its part, Russia capitalized on the support it provided to Khalifa Haftar, reaping in return the ability to spread its influence in significant oil and gas fields in eastern and southern Libya. Since before its invasion of Ukraine, Russia has been working to bolster its influence in the Mediterranean basin to prevent the emergence of competitors in the energy markets and to impose partnerships on the countries of the basin. This ensures Moscow's significant influence on any energy line that would be extended across the Mediterranean to Europe. Moreover, Russia views Libya - especially the Al-Jufra airbase - as a crucial foothold for its influence in North Africa.

Recently, American efforts have focused on ending the political division in Libya and conducting presidential and parliamentary elections that would produce a new authority. This is in preparation for unifying the military institution capable of forcing all foreign militias to exit the country. This has been the main focus of meetings between American officials and leaders from eastern and western Libya over the past months. In response, Russia counters the American moves by elevating its relationship with eastern Libya to an official level, having previously relied on the Wagner militia. Additionally, Russia is establishing communication bridges with influential powers in western Libya to thwart American attempts aimed at containing Russian influence in Libya.

It is expected that Washington's plans in Libya will face challenges, the most notable being the growing coordination between influential regional powers in the scenario, such as Egypt and Turkey, with the Russians. At the same time, the Biden administration's relations with Ankara and Cairo are marred by disputes over multiple issues that extend beyond the Libyan geography. However, this doesn't mean that the active regional powers are leaning towards joint action with Russia; because both Turkey and Egypt are uneasy with the idea of Russian dominance over the energy file in the Sirte basin. Consequently, the door will remain open for further developments that might escalate tensions between Libyan parties with the support of external actors.