Ankara’s 4-Way Alliance Looks to Replace U.S. Forces
2025-03-14276 view
Türkiye has been making strenuous efforts since early 2025 to form an alliance with Iraq, Jordan, and Syria’s new rulers, tasked with coordinating efforts to prevent the Islamic State group from staging a comeback in the region.
These efforts come amid growing concern in the region and internationally that the jihadist group could resurge, following the fall of the Assad regime and Russia’s complete cessation of operations in the Syrian badia desert region.
Ankara appears to be seeking to achieve another goal through this four-way alliance: convincing Washington that these countries can fill the vacuum that would be left were U.S. forces to withdraw, thus providing an alternative to American cooperation with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
Security officials from the four countries are set to meet in April 2025, to discuss how to bring the alliance to fruition. Yet implementing this on the ground will face major obstacles.
Iraq and Syria are two key pillars of the project, given that IS first emerged in Iraq and expanded into Syria and that its cells are still active on the Syrian-Iraqi border to this day. Yet despite initial meetings, security understandings between Baghdad and Damascus do not appear to be progressing as desired. Most factions of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), linked to Iran, are reluctant to let Baghdad develop relations with Syria’s new rulers who toppled the pro-Iranian Assad regime.
That said, U.S. pressure on Iranian allies in Iraq could give Baghdad a freer hand to play a role. The Trump administration has demanded the dissolution of Iranian-backed Iraqi armed groups operating outside the state, with the aim of reducing Tehran’s presence in Iraq.
The alliance may well be set up in coordination with U.S. forces already present in the region. Washington could then move to redefine its role and rely more on regional countries to combat IS, shifting its own focus to countering Iranian influence. Consequently, U.S. forces in Syria would likely redeploy to concentrate their presence on the Syrian-Iraqi border, as well as maintaining bases inside Iraq.
