Lebanon traverses elections to enter the unknown- Summary

#Lebanon

After the doubts that surrounded it, both domestically and internationally, the legislative elections in Lebanon passed peacefully. With it, the country entered a sensitive phase of important constitutional entitlements, while attention is being directed to the way things will develop economically and financially, in light of the unprecedented collapse in all sectors and the living condition in general.

The official results of the elections showed a decline in the share of the "March 8" team compared to the 2018 elections, but the uncertainty still surrounds the actual size of this team and the "March 14" team, due to the success of a number of independent candidates and other so-called "change advocates" in harvesting a number of seats, as there were signs that some of them joined one of the two main axes in the country, in addition to the fact that the "future current" of the electoral process caused an imbalance in the political map.

However, the real juncture is not in the elections the country has done per se, but in the constitutional entitlements that may trigger political clashes and possibly more. Such consequences might be accompanied by an economic collapse that needs to be addressed, in a country that is heavily affected by the geopolitical climate, especially with regard to developments at the level of the Iranian nuclear file, the "Arab-Iranian" relations, and, of course, developments in neighboring Syria, as well as the possibility of war with Israel looming in the horizon on daily bases.

In the most optimistic scenario, even if a government is formed quickly, and an agreement with the IMF is reached, the amount of declared and clear monthly waste, as well as the magnitude of the collapse, are far greater than what can be obtained from the IMF. The second part of the agreement with the IMF -the implementation of reforms-however, seems almost impossible at this stage in a country like Lebanon.

 

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