As Gaza Burns, do Al-Qaeda and IS pose a threat to Israel?

Palestinian militants’ October 7 attack on Israel and the subsequent Israeli military campaign against Gaza constitute the beginning of a new phase for major jihadist groups, which are likely to act soon in the guise of responding to Israel’s massacres and pushing to liberate Jerusalem.

Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State group (IS) have taken divergent positions on the Palestinian resistance movements. Branches of the first quickly announced their support for the “Al-Aqsa Flood” operation of Hamas and repeatedly praised the steadfastness of the Palestinian resistance. This approach clearly stems from that of the network’s founder Osama bin Laden and the sheikhs of Al-Qaeda, who have long emphasized the centrality of the Palestinian cause, related issues and actors.

IS, for its part, rejects the Palestinian factions, which it describes as infidels. Its media outlets incite its followers to abandon them and to reject their principles and actions. Despite this, the organization has repeatedly signaled, in recent issues of its official Al-Naba magazine, the necessity to “support Muslims and the oppressed”.

It should be noted that Al-Qaeda has put its words into action. The “Jaysh al-Ummah fi Bayt Al-Maqdis” (Army of the Ummah in Jerusalem) group, which has declared allegiance to Al-Qaeda, has claimed a number of attacks on Israeli forces in the Gaza Strip, with mortars and missiles fired by its “artillery units”. It has also engaged in direct clashes in some areas of the Gaza Strip, with explosive devices, anti-tank weapons and machine guns, killing several Israeli soldiers. The clashes also reportedly killed Ahmed Saleh Hamed, the nephew of the group’s commander Abu Hafs al-Maqdisi.

It is impossible to verify these reports, but they are plausible. Al-Qaeda’s Thabat Media Foundation indicated back in 2020 that the group had carried out operations against Israel, launched from the Sinai Peninsula and Gaza.

IS, for its part, has not announced any operations against Israel, despite the fact that Israel has imprisoned at least 19 of its fighters since 2014, most recently two arrested in Haifa in March 2022 after they attacked Israeli forces there, killing two people and injuring others. They had also carried out a car-ramming and stabbing operation in Beersheba in which four people were killed and another two wounded. IS officially claimed responsibility for both attacks, confirming the organization’s ability to carry out operations within Israeli territory or to infiltrate Gaza in order to launch operations from there.

All this indicates that both jihadist organizations have the capacity to have a direct impact inside Israel, but the extent of this influence is limited, judging from the available information.

Accordingly, if these groups do take moves to threaten Israel’s security, their attention will most likely focus on Israeli interests in Western countries or other locations that the two organizations can reach, such as embassies, consulates, tourist convoys and companies.