Preliminary estimates of the economic cost of the Kahramanmaraş earthquake

#Kahramanmaraş Earthquake
#Turkey

Before 2023, Turkey was exposed to a number of earthquakes. The most recent was the 1999 earthquake that struck the city of Izmit and its vicinities near the state of Istanbul. The earthquake had left more than 18,000 dead and nearly 50,000 injured, and destroyed 92,000 residential and commercial units, in addition to partial damage to 270,000 additional units.

The World Bank had estimated the economic losses resulting from the earthquake at 12-15 billion dollars, which is a figure that mediates a series of calculations conducted by government and private institutions whose figures ranged from 7 to 20 billion dollars (according to the approach of each of them in the calculations). In any case, the minimum limits for economic accounts remain very high, which means that what happened is a disaster.

Although the area hit by the Kahramanmaraş earthquake on February 6, 2023 is less urban than Izmit or the major Turkish cities such as Istanbul, Ankara, or Izmir, it is geographically larger, as it included ten major Turkish cities and three Syrian governorates, in addition to dozens of villages and small communities. Moreover, the geographical area affected by the earthquake is inhabited by more than twenty million people. The state of Gaziantep is considered the most economically important region, as it contains economic clusters and contributes a large share in the local GDP.

The main economic cost of the earthquake in both Turkey and Syria is the cost of the houses that were destroyed. There are 6444 demolished houses in Turkey, and about 600 houses in Syria. In addition to this number, there are thousands of buildings that may not be suitable for use, although they are not currently demolished. In calculating costs, citizens' personal possessions, especially cars, should be taken into consideration.

In addition to the main costs, there is the damage to the facilities and infrastructure. The port of Iskenderun was severely damaged, gas pipelines exploded in Hatay, the Malatya water network was cracked, and some railway lines were destroyed in Gaziantep. Add to all that the destruction of hospitals and government institutions. This constitutes the most economic cost that can be estimated.

Moreover, based on a set of determinants for estimating the economic cost of the Turkey earthquake, which is the intensity of the earthquake compared to previous earthquakes, the number of affected population, and the nature of the cities hit by the earthquake from an economic point of view, in addition to preliminary estimates of the declared losses, it is possible to reach a preliminary result that indicates an estimate of the size of the losses by approximately 14 percent, which averages $16 billion.

In the Syrian governorates - exposed to the earthquake - which are considered less urban than the Turkish regions for various reasons; most notably the destruction in wartime, the weak economic activity that affected it and the cessation of modernization of the infrastructure, the main losses may be limited to the floor buildings (which consist of four floors on average), the dilapidated infrastructure and public benefit institutions. These losses can be estimated at 200 to 300 million US dollars as a direct cost.