Mediators Face Tough Challenges Beyond Afghan-Pakistani Truce
2025-10-2010 view
Pakistan and Afghanistan reached a ceasefire agreement on October 19, ending a bout of deadly fighting along their disputed border. The two sides signed the agreement in Doha following Qatari and Turkish mediation, eight days after the clashes were sparked by attacks on the Pakistani army, which Islamabad blamed on the Afghanistan-based Pakistani Taliban.
Ankara is scheduled to host another round of talks between Pakistan and Afghanistan—which is ruled by a parallel Taliban movement—on October 25, to consolidate the ceasefire and seek a more permanent agreement to end the confrontations.
Yet despite the ceasefire deal, reaching a full peace agreement between the two countries will not be easy given the history of repeated clashes, such as Pakistani airstrikes on Afghan territory in March 2024.
The relationship between the two countries has long been tense due to their historical border dispute and Pakistan’s concerns about the activities of the Pakistani Taliban within Afghan territory. More recently, a new factor has started fueling further tensions: the development of Afghanistan’s relationship with India, especially since the latter’s brief but bloody armed conflict with Pakistan in April.
Kabul appears to want to leverage its relationship with New Delhi to strengthen its position against Islamabad. Its Foreign Minister visited India in October for unprecedented talks on diplomatic and economic ties, inviting India to invest in Afghanistan, and India has confirmed its intention to provide impoverished and war-torn Afghanistan with aid.
Rapid regional efforts to halt the clashes between the neighbors indicate a desire to prevent the outbreak of a new war that would further strengthen India’s alliance with Israel. Regional mediation could also offer Pakistan a suitable way of addressing its security concerns, as Islamabad understands that continued military confrontation could further strengthen Afghan-Indian coordination against Pakistani interests.
The current negotiations are unlikely to resolve the countries’ outstanding border demarcation issues. That said, they could establish a new dynamic in the relationship, pushing Pakistan to be more tolerant toward the changes in Afghanistan since the Taliban’s return to power in 2021, to roll back its attempts to dominate its neighbor, and to review its policies toward Afghan refugees on Pakistani territory.
Yet all this could be disrupted if Islamabad feels that its position is strengthening due to its improving relations with the U.S. since President Donald Trump returned to power. A sense of resurgence could raise the likelihood of new waves of escalation.
