Prospects for Progress as Yemen Peace Talks Resume
2025-10-319 view
Yemen peace talks resumed in Oman on October 27, overseen by the United Nations’ Special Envoy Hans Grundberg. The mediation is focused on reviving a Saudi-brokered roadmap for peace between the country’s internationally recognized government and the Houthi movement, which controls the capital Sanaa and other parts of Yemen.
The negotiation process stalled in late 2023 after the Houthis plunged into a military escalation in the Red Sea, arguing they were pressuring Israel to stop its genocide in Gaza. This led to an escalation of violence within Yemen itself, as a result of airstrikes by the U.S., Britain and Israel, targeting key facilities, infrastructure, and Houthi military sites, particularly on the Red Sea coast.
In this context, there is much to suggest that the relaunch of negotiations has more to do with achieving interim objectives than any conviction on the part of the belligerents that they can reach a final peace agreement. The UN, for example, is seeking the release of many of its Yemen staff, arrested by the Houthi group in several waves—most recently in early September, following an Israeli airstrike against a cabinet meeting of the Houthis’ parallel government, killing its prime minister and chief of staff. The group has accused UN employees of spying for Israel.
The Houthis are also hoping that progress in the talks can help them avoid further Western and Israeli attacks. The U.S. and the UK have stepped up their military activity in Yemen since October; the Houthis fear that such operations could dismantle their leadership structures and fragment their military infrastructure, which so far remains relatively intact.
The Presidential Leadership Council, the executive body of Yemen’s internationally recognized government, also hopes to achieve certain gains from the new talks, which come as Iran faces intense pressure that has rolled back its regional influence.
Yemen’s northern neighbor and key Houthi rival, Saudi Arabia, would also welcome progress in the peace process. Riyadh has shifted its approach to the Yemen file since 2022, as well as reaching a rapprochement with Tehran in 2023. It has reduced its use of hard power against the Yemeni group, and now supports understandings between Yemeni actors aimed at ensuring lasting stability and preventing further unrest along Saudi Arabia’s borders.
Yet despite these dynamics, the Houthis are not likely to offer the kind of concessions that could make the negotiations a success. They have continued to condition progress in the talks on being their own inclusion as a major party in any peace deal, and on receiving financial compensation and guarantees that their members will receive salaries.
The group also appears to be awaiting the outcome of nuclear negotiations between Iran and the U.S., which could resume at any time. Therefore, it may see no need to make any immediate concessions, betting on increased support from Iran in the future as circumstances change.
That said, the group may alter its position if it becomes convinced that the U.S is serious about inflicting further damage on it, such as providing significant support to Yemeni government forces to alter the balance of power on the ground, or giving the green light to a new wave of Israeli attacks against the group.
