U.S. Scrambles to Rein in Lebanon Escalation
2024-10-18395 view
The United States is making strenuous efforts and deploying military and diplomatic tools to contain the escalation between Israel and Hezbollah and prevent it from expanding across the region—potentially to the Gulf.
Since Iran’s missile attack on Israeli sites in early October, the Democratic Biden administration has communicated closely with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government to influence the nature and extent of the Israeli response.
Many reports indicate that Washington particularly wants Israel to refrain from targeting Iranian oil or nuclear facilities, which would likely prompt yet further escalation.
In parallel with the talks with Israel, U.S. ambassador to Iraq Alina Romanowski has met Iraqi parties, particularly the ruling Coordination Framework forces (an umbrella bloc of Shiite parties), reaching an agreement to halt Iran-allied Iraqi factions’ attacks on American or Israeli sites, with warnings that Washington will deploy substantial deterrent force if the agreement is breached.
Washington also sent a strong message to the Houthis in Yemen on October 17, using B2 Stealth Bombers to attack the Houthis’ “hardened underground weapons storage locations”—possibly with “bunker buster” bombs—with the aim of limiting the Houthis’ ability to target shipping in the Red Sea or hit Israeli targets.
It is fair to assume that Washington has no objection to Israel weakening Lebanon’s Hezbollah in a way that ends the Iran-backed movement’s dominance over the country’s politics, and weakens its ability to threaten Israel. The U.S. may see this as a way finally to break the political deadlock in Lebanon and elect a new president, developments that Hezbollah has blocked for several years.
On the other hand, the U.S. is keen to avoid seeing the escalation extend to Yemen and the Gulf, which would threaten energy facilities and place the lives of American soldiers in danger. Any such scenario would embarrass the Biden administration and expose the weakness of its diplomacy, just weeks ahead of presidential elections scheduled for November 5.
