Will French Military Support to Armenia Fuel Tensions with Azerbaijan?
2023-12-07291 view
French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna announced in October from Yerevan, the capital of Armenia, that Paris had given its green light to future contracts for the delivery of military equipment to enable Armenia to defend itself. Azerbaijan condemned the announcement, saying it gave the lie to French claims to be playing a neutral mediation role in the region.
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev accused France of playing a military role in the region and seeking to arm Armenia, risking sparking a future war in the region. It is of note that France, along with the United States and Russia, is part of the Minsk Group, which was established after a truce between Armenia and Yerevan in 1994 with the aim of reaching a lasting solution to the conflict.
This article discusses the motives behind France’s moves to step up its support for Armenia, including military support, arms and training. It also examines the factors that will limit France’s ability to influence the situation on the ground, and the potential consequences.
A Long History of French-Armenian Relations
The relationship between France and Armenia dates back centuries, to a treaty in around 1553 between King Francis I and Ottoman Sultan Suleiman the Magnificent. This “Capitulation” made France the protector of Catholic Christians, including Armenians, under Ottoman rule. It led to a burgeoning relationship between the Armenians and France, including the migration of many elite Armenians to France, where they mastered the language and served as a link between France and the Ottoman Empire.
The Armenian diaspora community in France continued to grow and led to the creation of an Armenian lobby. This in turn resulted in the establishment of the “Mount Lebanon Mutasarrifate” semi-autonomous province after a bout of sectarian strife in 1860, under a treaty between European countries and the Ottoman Empire. The treaty stipulated that the ruler of the Mutasarrifate would be an Ottoman Christian, “a national of the Ottoman Empire”, but in practice, all the subsequent rulers of the Mutasarrifate were Armenians, owing to their close relationship with France, which played a role in selecting who would hold the post.
Therefore, France considers itself the cultural and historical protector of the Armenians, both within Armenia and in the diaspora, and believes that this relationship trumps that of Russia with the Caucasian nation, despite Russia’s decades of rule there both during the imperial era and in Soviet times.
A Shifting French Position
The French shift towards arming Armenia did not come out of the blue. Colonna had in October urged US President Joe Biden to “support Armenia, which fears that Azerbaijan is going to violate its territorial integrity.”
Following clashes between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces in the Nagorno-Karabakh region in September, France had also called for an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council to discuss the developments. The French Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement saying there was “no justification for the Azerbaijani military operation” and that it was working with its partners to prepare a “strong response” to this “unacceptable attack.”
French military support is likely to include the supply of defense systems, military education and training, and exchanges of expertise. Specifically, this includes three French-made GM200 radar stations, Mistral anti-aircraft missile systems, 50 armored personnel carriers and an officer from the French army who will be seconded as an advisor to the Armenian Ministry of Defense.
France’s Objectives
French policy towards Armenia is driven by the desire to preserve a foothold in the South Caucasus in light of a shifting geopolitical situation. It is underpinned by the unique social and historical relations between France and Armenians in general.
France sees a strong relationship with Armenia as its best option to preserve a presence in the South Caucasus, a region that also includes Azerbaijan and Georgia. This position takes into account the strong alliance between Turkey and Azerbaijan, along with the latter’s warm ties with Russia. Georgia, for its part, has been divided since its border regions Abkhazia and South Ossetia unilaterally broke away, sparking an armed conflict in 2008.
Georgia also faces a crisis in the Adjara region, which is inhabited by a Georgian Muslim majority, and where Turkey has a long history of cultural influence.
All this means that France has few options in the region. Accordingly, along with strong ties with Yerevan, it is trying to strengthen its influence by strengthening its relations with America, aimed at confronting both Russian influence and the growing Turkish clout in the region.
Competing with Turkey, filling the Russian vacuum
Russia has traditionally been highly influential in the South Caucasus, but this has declined over the past two years due to Moscow’s preoccupation with Ukraine. This has left a vacuum that Ankara is trying to fill. France is therefore seeking to use its ties with Armenia to counter and disrupt Turkish influence, which has become a thorn in the side of French policy not only in the Caucasus region but also in Africa, not to mention tensions over gas in the Eastern Mediterranean and France’s bias towards Turkey’s arch-rival Greece.
Strengthening the pro-Western camp vs. Russian influence
France also fears the possibility of a coup by the Armenian army, and is working to preserve the government of Nikol Pashinyan, who has adopted a pro-Western stance and believes an alliance with Moscow is no longer a good option for Armenia.
Moreover, a host of cultural, historical and social factors play into France’s connection with Armenia, especially given the presence of a large Armenian community in France which plays a significant role as a pressure group shaping French policy.
France may also want to have influence over Armenia regarding the Zangezur Corridor, which could help connect Asia to Europe. This may in turn contribute to Europe’s strategic push to reduce its dependence on Russian gas.
However, the shift in French policy is not expected to change the military balance in the region, for many reasons - most importantly, the strong military relations connecting Azerbaijan with both Turkey and Israel. The Azerbaijani army ranks 57th- most powerful army in the world, while the Armenian army ranks 94th. Given the preoccupation of European armies with the war in Ukraine, including that of France, Paris is not in a position to compensate for this deficiency - especially given the shortfalls the Ukraine conflict has revealed in terms of manpower and the European munitions industry.
Furthermore, Russia has imposed costs on Armenia’s efforts to move into the Western orbit. President Vladimir Putin announced on November 23 that his country was ready to complete the delivery of equipment making up a unified air defense system for the six-country Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), which includes Russia and Armenia as well as Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Significant progress has been made in this regard, after Tajikistan took delivery of two S-300 air defense missile systems. This indicates that Russia will continue to exert significant efforts to maintain its influence in the region, and not give it easily on its southern backyard.
