Unpacking the Impact of the Gaza Conflict Locally and Globally

#Middle East
#Asia

The Dimensions for Strategic Studies (DSS) recently held an interactive webinar on Zoom, focusing on the ramifications of the war on Gaza, both regionally and globally. The discussion provided insights into the potential developments in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.

The main speakers in the meeting were: the political analyst, Iyad Jaber, the President of DSS, Muhammad Sarmini, international relations expert with a focus on Eurasian matters, Ahmed Dahshan, and journalist Magdy Halabi. Dr. Mohammad Salem, the head of Study Unit at DSS, moderated the webinar.

The webinar touched upon the internal situation of the Israeli conflict, its regional and international implications, and its impact on the roles of Russia and China, in addition to the Israeli stance and its military trajectory predictions.

Iyad Jaber expressed his views, stating that the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is longstanding and recurrent. Factors that propelled Hamas to undertake the "Storm of Al-Aqsa" operation were rooted in the violations committed by the occupation and its attempts to infiltrate the West Bank through both legal and illegal means, especially given the influence of an extreme religious government on the political actions.

The participants delved into several key areas, including an examination of the internal dynamics of the Israeli conflict, its regional and global implications, and the influence these developments have on the roles of Russia and China. Additionally, the session addressed the Israeli stance and its projections on the military front.

Iyad Jabr believes that the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is longstanding and ever-evolving. There were motivations that pushed Hamas to undertake the "Operation Al-Aqsa Flood" in response to violations committed by the occupation, according to Jaber. He added that this was further exacerbated by attempts to infiltrate the West Bank using both legal and illegal means, spearheaded by one of the most influential extremist religious governments in the political arena.

Jabr asserted that the "Al-Aqsa Flood" is an unexpected move, especially following the security stability established in 2021 between Hamas and Israel. He also pointed out the parallels between Hamas's stance and that of the Palestinian Authority. The latter's position threatened the reputation of the resistance, leading to a decline in its popularity within Palestinian territories.

In his discussion, Jabr alluded to anticipated scenarios aimed at fulfilling Israeli objectives. These scenarios include eliminating Hamas and potentially entering the Gaza Strip either partially or entirely. Furthermore, he emphasized the influence of the U.S. stance on the course of the conflict, especially considering doubts surrounding the Israeli military's capability to maintain overall control of the situation.

When Muhammad Sarmini took the floor, he talked about the situation in Gaza as a type of "earthquake" in the region. He highlighted a clear US desire, evidenced by consecutive messages, suggesting that the U.S. does not want a new regional war in addition to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

Sarmini added in his talk that what happened was unexpected to everyone in terms of timing and magnitude. This created a state of security and international confusion. The data suggests that there are indications of changes that will become clear over time. These changes coincide with the Arab-Israeli normalization process, with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia at the forefront, and the implications of this on the initial course's conclusion.

In relation to the outcomes of the war and its impact, Sarmini believes that it will entirely affect the surrounding scene; because the Palestinian issue is the heart of the Arab world. It has a significant influence at a time when the Israeli side, on the political and regional levels, was able to play a significant role.

He pointed out that there might be a desire to reshape what is known as the "Axis of Resistance" and either restore it or dismantle it from the side of the Iranian alliance. The repercussions of the operation will be revealed over time, whether it was coordinated partially or wholly by Hamas.

Regarding the stance of the Turkish axis on the operation "Operation Al-Aqsa Flood," Sarmini commented that it is a primary axis. He clarified that there is a rebalancing by repositioning the Turkish stance, which tried to maintain a balance and showed that it is more supportive of the Palestinian side. There is a loss of trust towards the other side, not merely to show goodwill but for deeper reasons.

Delving into the International and Regional Implications of the War, Ahmad Dahshan, an expert in International relations with a specialization in Eurasian affairs, observed: "Initially, the Russian media gravitated towards the Israeli narrative, a response seemingly influenced by the Israeli lobby within Russia.

Dahshan also highlighted that the war on Gaza primarily served Russia's interests. It diverted the United States' attention from the Ukrainian conflict. Additionally, Russia leveraged this situation to expose perceived Western hypocrisy, emphasizing their alleged indifference towards principles and human rights.

Dahshan anticipates a proactive move by Russia and China. He believes that if Israel falters in its ground operation, it would provide an opportune moment for China to intensify its involvement in Taiwan and, concurrently, for Russia in Ukraine.

In the context of the military operation's impact, the writer and journalist Magdi Al-Halabi states: "Israel's military response is unprecedented in its pace and intensity, despite the successful operation by all measures launched by the Al-Qassam Brigades on October 7th.

Al-Halabi outlined potential scenarios, one of which is the reoccupation of the Gaza Strip. However, such an action would come at a high cost to Israel; especially given that the Israeli military isn't trained for such a profound operation. There's also apprehension over Hezbollah entering the war according to al-Halabi. Hence, Israel aims to neutralize it from the confrontation due to the difficulty of managing two fronts simultaneously.

Al-Halabi also pointed out that there has been a deliberate delay in launching a ground invasion of the Gaza Strip for tactical and military reasons. Additionally, he mentioned that aid would enter Gaza on a limited basis and that the blockade is expected to last for an extended period.