As the war in Ukraine approaches its fourth year, there is growing anticipation of new developments, especially since U.S. President Donald Trump announced on February 1 that his administration is holding serious talks with Russia aimed at ending the war.

Prior to his inauguration in January, Trump repeatedly made clear that one of his main goals was to stop the war. Now, his administration faces the challenge of delivering on those promises, despite tensions between Russia and most European states, which feel that Moscow threatens their security too.

It appears that for Kyiv, Washington’s plan is either unacceptable or not yet clear, although it would include holding elections by the end of the year, following a truce agreement with Moscow to halt military operations. Ukraine is under pressure due to balance of power on the ground, where it is struggling to mount defensive operations in the face of Russian attacks.

Therefore, Kyiv’s reservations about any future political deal, even one that does not meet its aspirations, could deepen the crisis it faces on the ground, especially if the US administration exerts pressure on it by suspending or reducing aid.

On the other hand, Russia has sought to build a dialogue with Washington, trying to sideline the complex interests of the rest of the parties, including other NATO members and the European Union, which indicates in one way or another that Moscow has begun to view Trump’s return to the White House as an opportunity to seek an exit from a war for which Russia has paid a high price.

That said, the EU has no interest in any deal that falls short of guaranteeing a Russian withdrawal, at least from parts of Ukraine it occupied in the current war, as well as implementing the Minsk agreements that froze the previous conflict in 2014 and reined in the Russian threat towards the European continent.

Therefore, it is difficult to expect a paradigm-shifting political solution to the Ukrainian war. Tough negotiations will be required in order to build a modicum of trust between the parties and pave the way for a settlement. The best likely outcome in the short term is a fragile calm or a de-escalation, pending the outcome of U.S.-Russian talks, which are expected to be hosted by a Gulf state such as Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates.