Europe’s Far Right Surge and the Fear of Trump’s Return
2024-07-09484 view
June’s European Parliament elections shook up the continent’s political landscape. The far right staged an unprecedented surge in the six founding countries of the European Union: France, Germany, Italy, Belgium, and the Netherlands.
This outcome will inevitably affect the work of the bloc. Moreover, the rising tide of populism, right-wing and nationalist tendencies across Europe coincides with similar dynamics around the world, from India to the United States, where November pivotal elections could return Donald Trump to the White House, a source of great concern to many European decision-makers.
All told, the EU has emerged weakened by the elections, which took place at a delicate juncture of rivalry between international blocs. At a moment when the need for a strong and effective Europe could not be more acute, the rise of political forces skeptical of the European idea is chipping away at the bloc’s international standing. Unless the EU is unable to shore itself up and formulate a strategic approach to its foreign and defense policies, it will be further marginalized it on the world stage, especially if Trump wins a second term.
The Dangers of Reviving Historical Rivalries
While the far right staged a dramatic surge in Western Europe, the opposite dynamic can be seen in the former communist states in the center and east of the continent, where the left and the liberal center achieved good results in the election. The war in Ukraine was likely a major factor in mobilizing pro-EU sentiment in this region.
Europe’s intensifying geographical and political divisions bear a bitter irony. The election, which saw gains by the ideological descendants of totalitarian fascism, took place within days of the 80th anniversary of the Normandy landings, the first phase of Europe’s liberation from the Nazis.
The election resulted in a European Parliament firmly anchored on the right. The extreme right gained significant ground compared to the previous legislature, although not to the point that would enable it to threaten the idea of European integration itself.
Despite the fact Ursula von der Leyen has been put forward for a second five-year term as president of the European Commission president, leaning on a centrist alliance that supports the European experiment, it cannot be denied that the elections delivered a serious warning: the far right is becoming “normalized” in Europe (Giorgia Meloni’s party in Italy is a prime example) and winning support from younger voters. Some observers have even warned the situation has echoes of the 1930s, in what British historian Timothy Garton Ash terms the rise of “fascism, nationalism and war.”
To get a sense of this transformation among voters, it helps to note the decay in the EU’s image. In its early years, the union was synonymous with prosperity and growth, but today it is associated more with austerity and unemployment. These themes are grist to the mill of those pushing isolationist and nationalist agendas.
Voters are angry over many issues: immigration and fears for national identities and sovereignty; security; purchasing power; the EU’s lack of dynamism; its focus on economic issues and neglect of geopolitical and strategic questions. Many are also affected by the repercussions of globalization and growing inequality, and a sense of crisis is emerging among the working class, a dynamic that has worsened due to the wave of inflation that followed the coronavirus pandemic crisis and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Along with the decline of traditional parties and the rise of religious identities and fundamentalist movements, these factors have combined to drive a surge of the radical right. They are also contributing to general anxiety about the future, and fundamental questions over the purpose of the EU.
This rightward shift, which is strengthening radical political groups deeply hostile to the European project, coincides with an ever-growing need to consolidate European power, in light of global power balances and the emerging bipolarity between the U.S. and China.
Since the UK’s Brexit referendum in 2016, two European taboos have been broken. Firstly, a member state has left the Union. Secondly, the idea of permanent peace and stability, which prevailed after World War II and was synonymous with European cooperation, has been shattered. With the start of the war in Ukraine in 2022, Europeans realized that the peace they had enjoyed for a generation may not last forever, and that the war on the edge of the continent could spread to reach them too.
The Fear of a Second Trump Term
Europeans are also watching the U.S. presidential election campaign closely, given Washington’s leading position in the Western alliance and the world at large. Many officials fear Trump may be re-elected, with far-reaching implications for the American relationship with Europe.
That said, some Europeans believe fears over Trump’s policies are overblown, noting that the Biden administration, too, has shown little real flexibility in its dealings across the Atlantic. Australia’s withdrawal from a deal to buy submarines from France, in favor of American and British vessels, as well as the EU being forced to play second fiddle to Washington over the Ukraine war, provide evidence of this.
The truth is that regardless of who occupies the White House, the U.S. has worked for more than a century to maintain its dominance and rein in any European power that could emerge as a rival.
Yet despite the complexities of the decision-making process in the U.S., most European leaders see Donald Trump as a hostile figure, given his approach during his first term—not least his pursuit of rapprochement with Russia, his threats over NATO’s fate and financing, and his policies on trade.
European countries, notably Germany and France, could face a tough road ahead if Trump does return to the White House. He has repeatedly threatened to start a trade war over agricultural products and cars, fueled by his belief that the U.S. should have a bigger share of European markets.
All this leads to a general belief in Europe that a second Trump term will produce an isolationist U.S. that will be difficult to deal with.
European Continuity
Time plays in favor of strengthening the European experience. The European project took hold over many years. The EU has become a daily, lived reality that affects many domains, from the environment and the Common Agricultural Policy, to industry, common defense, and policies on energy and labor. Its decisions affect people’s lives, and EU law often prevails over national laws.
European voters’ priorities are better understood through the lens of concrete issues in their daily lives—such as immigration and security, social reforms and climate change—than through questions of European power and whether the bloc can be an influential player on the international stage.
Some observers have praised Europe’s successes in creating the common market and economic unity, while others want it to be merely a “union of nations and states”. There are those who want it to be a “United States of Europe” rather than a miniature United Nations, not fully in control of its fate.
All this plays out against a backdrop of national priorities and ideological contradictions that stand in the way of consolidating a genuinely influential Europe.
